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Young Voters Power Mamdani Victory, Shape Key 2025 Elections

amedin02 — Wed, 05 Nov 2025 17:14:08 +0000

Young Voters Power Mamdani Victory, Shape Key 2025 Elections

November 5, 2025

amedin02 Wed, 11/05/2025 - 12:14

Three out of four young voters backed Mamdani, and youth turnout increased in New Jersey and Virginia.

Authors: Alberto Medina, Sara Suzuki, Ruby Belle Booth

Note: This analysis was updated on November 12 to reflect changes in exit poll data. Notably, we adjusted our estimate of youth voter turnout in the New York City mayoral race from 19% to 28%.

In one of their first major opportunities to shape the political landscape since the last presidential election, young voters played a major role in three key 2025 elections in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia.

In New York City, young voters (ages 18-29) provided Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani overwhelming support toward his historic victory. According to exit polls, 75% of youth voted for Mamdani, compared to 19% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 5% for Republican Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani won the three-way race with 50% of the overall vote; young people were his strongest supporters out of all age groups.

According to CIRCLE estimates, also based on exit polls conducted by SSRS and Census population data, 28% of young eligible voters cast ballots in the New York City mayoral election. This is an estimate based on 93% of votes counted as of early afternoon on November 12 and reflecting updated exit poll data on the share of votes cast by youth. The estimate may still shift slightly once all votes are counted.

Eleven percent of all ballots in the election were cast by young voters, who made up a key part of Mayor-Elect Mamdani’s winning coalition.

Available data suggests that youth turnout was far stronger than in previous New York City mayoral races and high for municipal races in general. An analysis by researchers at Portland State University found that, in 2013, just 8% of youth ages 18-34 cast ballots for New York mayor, and the average voter turnout for that age group in the 30 largest U.S. cities was 9%. CIRCLE’s own research found that, in the 2015 Boston mayoral race, less than 2% of youth (ages 18-29) cast ballots.

While youth turnout data is not available for the 2021 New York City mayoral race, overall (all age) turnout in that election was 23%, meaning youth turnout was likely much lower. In that context of historically low youth turnout for municipal races, the 28% youth voter turnout in the 2025 New York city mayoral election is a major increase.

The New York City mayoral race also reflected some major recent trends in the youth vote by race and gender. Young women were much more likely to support Mamdani than young men: 82% vs. 65%. Youth of color also gave Mamdani extraordinary support: young Latino voters (85%) and young Black voters (83%) voted for Mamdani at a higher rate than white youth (62%).

Youth Turnout Surged In New Jersey and Virginia

Youth voter participation was also significant in two key gubernatorial races. CIRCLE estimates that 34% of youth (ages 18-29) voted in Virginia and 29% in New Jersey. In both states, youth turnout increased by 7 percentage points in Virginia and 9 points in New Jersey compared to the 2021 gubernatorial elections.

We have been tracking youth voter turnout in the New Jersey and Virginia off-year elections for the past four cycles. These races are often seen as an early bellwether for electoral participation and vote choice. While youth turnout in New Jersey has been relatively steady, Virginia experienced a meaningful surge in youth turnout in 2017—ahead of the 2018 and 2020 elections which featured historic highs in youth electoral engagement.

Some observers also look to these races for insights on voters’ partisan behavior. In 2017, youth ages 18-29 favored Democratic candidate Ralph Northam by a 39-point margin (69% vs. 30% for Republican Ed Gillespie), perhaps presaging the strong support from youth for President Biden both in Virginia (+29 from young voters) and nationally (+24) in 2020.

In the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia, support for the Democratic candidate narrowed to 8 points. Three years later, in 2024, youth support for Vice President Kamala Harris also narrowed significantly.

In 2025, youth support for Democratic gubernatorial candidates returned to its previous high levels. According to exit polls, 70% of youth supported Spanberger in Virginia and 69% of youth supported Sherrill in New Jersey, giving both candidates 35+ point margins over their Republican opponents.

Youth Strongly Backed California Redistricting Measure

In another high-profile vote, young people in California were the strongest supporters of Proposition 50, which will redraw the state’s Congressional map to give Democrats more seats in the House of Representatives. The proposition passed easily with 64% of the total vote (as of Wednesday, November 5). Eighty percent of young California voters supported the measure—the highest of any age group.

The overwhelming support for this redistricting proposition may signal that many youth are dissatisfied with structural issues in democracy and willing to back major reforms to pursue change. This tracks with what we’ve seen in our youth polling after the 2024 election: youth believe in the values and principles of democracy but largely think it’s not working for their generation or solving the country’s problems—and some are willing to consider transformative measures.

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Update: Youth Voter Turnout in 2021 New Jersey and Virginia Elections

amedin02 — Thu, 17 Feb 2022 18:56:20 +0000

Update: Youth Voter Turnout in 2021 New Jersey and Virginia Elections

February 17, 2022

amedin02 Thu, 02/17/2022 - 13:56

We estimate that 20% of youth voted in New Jersey and 27% in Virginia, in both cases comparable to participation in previous gubernatorial elections.

In November 2021, many observers looked to the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia to gauge whether the trends of high voter engagement we saw in 2020 would continue and to draw potential lessons for the 2022 midterms. Immediately after those contests, we used exit polling data to produce an early estimate of 25% (+/- 3.6 margin of error) youth turnout in Virginia—data for New Jersey was not available.

Now that the voter files have been updated we can provide updated estimates of youth voter turnout in both states’ 2021 gubernatorial contests: 20% in New Jersey, and 27% in Virginia.

Some insights from the data:

Youth voter turnout in Virginia was slightly lower than in its most recent gubernatorial election (34% in 2017) but about the same as in the 2013 governor race. Youth turnout in New Jersey was slightly higher than in 2013 and 2017—though estimates from different data sources are being compared. (In addition, Edison Research adjusted its exit poll weighting in 2018.)
Voter turnout (both among youth and among the whole electorate) tends to be lower in so-called off-year elections than in midterm and presidential cycles. But, in all elections, outreach and policies can influence participation. In 2020, New Jersey automatically sent mail-in ballots to all registered voters and had the highest youth voter turnout rate in the country. It did not automatically send ballots for the 2021 gubernatorial election.
Our data suggests that outreach and attention to young voters is lacking in these “off-year” contests—even to youth who had proven just a year earlier that they were interested in elections and could be turned out. In Virginia, 28% of all voters who cast a ballot in 2020 did not vote in the 2021 election. But, among young people, 48% of youth who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2021. In New Jersey, the proportion of youth (and of older voters) who cast a ballot in 2020 but not in 2021 was even higher.
The youth electorate still expanded in 2021. Across both the Virginia and New Jersey elections, more than 10% of all young voters were casting a ballot for the first time—whether because they just reached voting age or for another reason. In any election cycle, it is always possible to bring young people into the political process if we reach out and engage them.

As our research often highlights, the data on youth participation in the 2021 gubernatorial elections shows that youth electoral participation is not a given. That’s especially the case in “off-year” elections that do not garner the same level of attention and visibility to people who do not regularly follow state politics. Even in states where youth have shown, through their voting in recent elections, that they are interested and engaged, they must be reached by organizations and campaigns and supported by facilitative electoral policies as they continue to develop into active participants in democracy.

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Preview: Young Voters in the New Jersey and Virginia Statewide Elections

amedin02 — Thu, 21 Oct 2021 20:03:29 +0000

Preview: Young Voters in the New Jersey and Virginia Statewide Elections

October 21, 2021

amedin02 Thu, 10/21/2021 - 16:03

Both states had above average youth turnout in 2018 and 2020, but outreach to young people—especially youth of color—remains key for November.

We’re less than two weeks out from statewide elections for governor and state legislature in New Jersey and Virginia. After two national election cycles (2018 and 2020) that featured historic or near record-breaking youth voter turnout, these contests may provide some important insights into the youth vote headed into next year’s midterm elections.

What can we expect from youth turnout in these elections in November? In this preview, we look at youth voter turnout in both states in recent elections, some of the demographic and electoral context, and other factors that may shape the youth vote in 2021.

Recent Youth Voter Turnout

In off-year statewide elections like the upcoming contests in New Jersey and Virginia, turnout among all voters—including youth—tends to be markedly lower than in midterms or presidential cycles. In 2017, we used data available immediately after the election to estimate that 34% of youth in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey cast ballots in that year’s gubernatorial election. Youth turnout in New Jersey has remained mostly flat across the past three off-year elections, while in Virginia that 34% represented an increase from 2009 (17%) and 2013 (26%).

The 2017 youth voter turnout rate in Virginia was seen as an indicator for growing youth engagement leading into the following year, when youth turnout nationally was the highest in a midterm election since the 26th Amendment lowered the voting age to 18. In 2018, in both states, about one-third of eligible youth cast ballots—higher than the national youth turnout rate of 28%. Both New Jersey and Virginia had above average youth turnout again in 2020. In fact, New Jersey had the highest youth turnout in the nation (67%) and Virginia had the highest youth turnout (56%) among southern states.

Voting Laws and Policies

One reason for New Jersey’s high youth turnout in 2020 may have been the state’s election laws and election administration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The state, which had implemented Automatic Voter Registration in 2018, sent all registered voters mail-in ballots in 2020, which our research (and that of others) have found is associated with higher turnout. While ballots won’t be sent automatically for the 2021 election, the prior implementation of automatic registration and last year’s historic voter turnout mean that the voting rolls in New Jersey will contain more young voters, which could lead to higher participation

In Virginia, the voting laws have seen a massive transformation since the last gubernatorial election in 2017. The following year, the legislature passed early voting, automatic voter registration, and repealed a photo ID requirement. Additional provisions to make voting by mail easier were also passed and implemented, and this year the state also passed the Virginia Voting Rights Act which seeks to mitigate other potential sources of discrimination in electoral practices that could lower the participation of people of color and other historically marginalized groups. Several provisions in that Act seek to address barriers to voting that young people may face due to their higher rates of mobility, and allow them to more easily and safely register and vote in this November’s election.

Demographics

Both New Jersey and Virginia are racially diverse states which can have an impact on both voter turnout and vote choice. In Virginia, 22% of eligible young voters are Black; in New Jersey, Latinos are 19% of eligible young voters, Black youth are 17%, and there are five congressional districts in which people of color make up the majority of the electorate. Even with some facilitative election policies in place, youth of color can face barriers to voting, so engaging youth of color in these elections will be key to maximizing turnout.

In addition, 25% of Virginia’s population is classified as living in a rural area. Our research has underscored the challenges to reaching and engaging rural youth; in 2020 youth turnout was highest in the suburban and exurban counties around Washington D.C. and the Richmond corridor and lower in the more rural parts of the state. The extent to which those turnout differences by urbanicity manifest this November will be another dynamic to watch.

College Campuses

The upcoming elections in New Jersey and Virginia will also be among the first in the nation to take place with college campuses back in full swing after many switched to remote learning due to the pandemic in 2020. Potentially, that means increased voter engagement efforts that specifically target young people. In both states, there are a number of congressional districts that have a high share of college students. In New Jersey, districts NJ-06, NJ-11, and NJ-12 contain large universities, including Princeton and Rutgers. In Virginia, districts VA-05, VA-06, and VA-09 include the University of Virginia, James Madison University, and Virginia Tech. However, neither state has same-day registration, meaning that all college students who want to vote only had a short time between arriving on campus and the registration deadline of October 12 in both states.

Electoral Impact

Our analyses of the 2020 election highlighted that, in several states, young voters—especially youth of color—played a decisive role in election results. Our Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI), which before each election highlights the states and districts where youth have the are most likely to influence results, quantified the youth vote potential in New Jersey and Virginia. In 2020 we ranked two congressional districts in each state (VA-2, VA-7, NJ-3, and NJ-7) in our top 50 House races where young people could have an especially high impact on the result. That potential remains in 2021, both at the state legislative level and, especially, the gubernatorial contest in Virginia, which polls at the time of writing project will be a close contest decided by less than 5 percentage points.

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State-by-State 2020 Youth Voter Turnout: The Northeast

amedin02 — Tue, 13 Apr 2021 15:34:48 +0000

State-by-State 2020 Youth Voter Turnout: The Northeast

April 13, 2021

amedin02 Tue, 04/13/2021 - 11:34

New Jersey led the region and the nation in youth voter turnout in 2020; six states in the Northeast had turnout rates above 50%.

Our final analysis of statewide youth voter turnout by region examines the electoral participation in young people in nine Eastern and Northeastern states. Key takeaways from this group of states include:

New Jersey had the highest youth voter turnout in the nation: 67%.
Despite being the only major swing state in the region, Pennsylvania had a similar youth voter turnout rate (54%) to other states in the East and Northeast. Perhaps relatedly, it’s the only state in the region (for which we have turnout data) without either pre-registration or automatic voter registration.
Vermont and New Jersey which implemented full vote by mail programs in which they automatically sent ballots to every voter, saw the biggest increases in youth voter turnout compared to 2016: rising by 12 and 22 percentage points, respectively.

Turnout in the region among people ages 18-29 ranged from 43% in Rhode Island to a best-in-the-nation 67% in New Jersey. Maine, which had a highly watched U.S. Senate race, also had a strong youth voter turnout (61%), while most other states in the region were just above or below 50%. New Jersey also had the largest increase in youth turnout, 22 percentage points higher than its 2016 rate of 35%, when it was 10th in the nation in youth participation. The second-highest turnout increase in the region belonged to Vermont, where youth voting increased 12 percentage points: from 37% to 49%. Crucially, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, both of these states adopted programs in 2020 to mail ballots to all registered voters so that they could more easily vote by mail; in other regions, notably in the West where all-mail elections are more common, we saw that policy correlate with higher voter turnout. It is noteworthy that neither New Jersey nor Vermont were battleground states, which suggests that electoral laws and policies may have a higher impact on youth participation than competitiveness.

Generally, states in the East and Northeast make it relatively easier to register to vote. Six of the nine states in this analysis have pre-registration, and five of nine have automatic voter registration. Pre-registration, which allows 16- and 17-year olds to register, is a key recommendation in our Growing Voters framework that aims to ensure we start preparing youth to participate in democracy long before they turn 18. According to the 2018 Elections and Voting survey, Delaware had the highest share of pre-registrations in the region in 2018 (2020 data is not yet available); in this most recent election, it had one of the the lowest gaps between the voter turnout of youth ages 18-19 (49%) and of youth ages 18-29 turnout (52%).

Some highlights on other notable states:

Maine (61%) was one of four states in the country with a youth voter turnout rate above 60%—New Jersey, Minnesota, and Colorado were the others. The state built on a strong foundation: in both the 2016 and 2018 elections, it was among the top-5 states in youth voter turnout. Maine had closely watched races for both President and for the U.S. Senate, and the state has a number of statutes that support young people’s electoral participation, like voter registration in schools.

Rhode Island’s turnout (among the overall, all-ages electorate) increased to an all-time high and was on par with the national average. But, while in most states the growth in youth voter turnout from 2016 to 2020 outpaced the increase among older voters, in Rhode Island the increase was about the same (5-6 percentage points) both among youth and among the overall electorate. While Rhode Island has a number of pro-voter policies in place, unlike other states in the region it also has a voter ID law; a study of this policy found a negative impact on voter turnout. Additionally, we found that, one month out from the election, voter registration of young people aged 18-24 in Rhode Island lagged significantly from where it was in 2016.

Washington, D.C., New Hampshire, and Maryland were not included in this regional analysis due to a lack of reliable age data on the voter file.

Explore the interactive map below, which includes the Midwestern states in this analysis and the Western states, Southern states, and Midwestern states from our other releases.

Youth Turnout in the West and Southwest

Youth Turnout in the South

Youth Turnout in the Midwest

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Youth Turnout 26% in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey

amedin02 — Fri, 20 Dec 2019 17:45:56 +0000

Youth Turnout 26% in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey

November 6, 2013

amedin02 Fri, 12/20/2019 - 12:45

According to our estimates, close to 300,000 young people cast ballots in the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial race.

If the Virginia and New Jersey exit polls captured precise and accurate estimates of the proportion of voters who were young, then youth turnout was 26% in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey, according to CIRCLE’s calculations.¹ In recent elections, exit polls have not always captured accurate age demographics. Also, the preliminary exit poll results reported on Election Day are subject to revision. However, CIRCLE’s turnout estimates are based on the best available data.

Using the same methods, we calculated that youth turnout in Virginia was 17% in 2009 and 18% in 1997, and in New Jersey 26% in 1997 and 19% in 2009. That suggests a significant rise in Virginia this year.

These turnout estimates would translate to roughly 288,000 young voters who cast a ballot yesterday in Virginia, out of the estimated 1.1 million 18-29 year-old citizens who live in that state. In New Jersey, roughly 206,000 young voters cast a ballot out of the estimated 1.2 million 18-29 year old citizens.

According to the exit poll, 45% of young people voted for Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe yesterday in Virginia, 40% for Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli and 15% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. In New Jersey, a small majority of young people (51%) voted for Democratic Candidate Barbara Buono but 49% supported incumbent Governor Chris Christie.

As a proportion of all the people who voted, in 2013, under-30s represented 13% in Virginia, which reflects a modest increase from 2009, when they made up 10% of all voters. In New Jersey, under-30s represented 10% of voters, which is very similar to the youth share of 9% in 2009. (The share of voters is not an accurate measure of youth turnout. “Turnout” is the proportion of all young citizens who voted, shown above.)

“Although 18% and 26% are far from satisfactory, these statistics should be put in context,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Turnout is always much lower in off-year gubernatorial elections than in presidential years. The best available evidence on Virginia’s youth turnout suggests an increase compared to the two most recent gubernatorial races there. Virginia is also interesting in that Barack Obama won the state’s youth vote easily, but Democrat Terry McAuliffe got less than half of youth, and Libertarian Robert Sarvis ran relatively strong at 15%.”

[1] The estimated numbers of young people who voted in the 1997 and 2009 governors’ races were calculated using: (1) the number of ballots cast in each race according to the media, (2) the youth share of those who voted, based on the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, and (3) the estimated number of 18-29 year old citizens taken from the Census Current Population Survey, March Demographic File of that year. Edison Research estimates that its exit polls have a margin of error rate of plus or minus three percentage points.

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Virginia Youth Voter Turnout Doubled between 2009 and 2017

amedin02 — Tue, 19 Nov 2019 19:12:27 +0000

Virginia Youth Voter Turnout Doubled between 2009 and 2017

November 8, 2017

amedin02 Tue, 11/19/2019 - 14:12

Our estimates suggest that more than a third of young people in Virginia voted in the recent gubernatorial election.

In what could be an early indicator of young people’s political engagement and mobilization after the contentious 2016 presidential race—and ahead of the 2018 midterms—youth turnout surged in Virginia, and in both gubernatorial races young people strongly preferred the Democratic candidates.

If the Virginia and New Jersey exit polls captured precise and accurate estimates of the proportion of voters who were young, then youth turnout was 34% in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey, according to CIRCLE’s calculations.¹ These turnout estimates are based on CIRCLE analysis of Edison Research exit polls conducted in both states with Census population data. While it’s important to note that, in recent elections, exit polls have not always captured accurate age demographics and preliminary exit poll results are subject to revision, CIRCLE’s turnout estimates are based on the best available data.

Those turnout rates translate to roughly 222,000 young people casting ballots in New Jersey and 366,000 youth voting in Virginia. In terms of young voters as a proportion of all people who cast ballots in each election (youth vote share), young people made up 11% of the electorate in New Jersey and 14% in Virginia.

The 18% youth turnout in New Jersey equaled the 2013 rate and follows a very stable trend in New Jersey youth turnout, which has hovered just below 20% in the past three off-year elections. Meanwhile, Virginia’s 34% youth turnout is 8 percentage points higher than in 2013 (26%)—and double what it was in 2009 (17%).

According to the exit polls, almost three quarters (73%) of youth in New Jersey voted for Democratic candidate Phil Murphy, who won the election by 55% to 43%. In Virginia, 69% of young people supported Democratic candidate Ralph Northam, who won 54% to 45%.² Youth made up 18% of Northam’s votes, the same proportion as those 65+, while only 9% of Gillespie’s votes.

These estimates represent significant jumps in youth mobilization and/or support for the Democratic candidates. In 2013, by contrast, Virginia Governor McAuliffe received just 45% of votes from 18 to 29-year-olds, with 40% going to Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli and 15% to Libertarian Robert Sarvis. In the 2013 New Jersey election, young people roughly split their votes, with Barbara Buono (D) receiving 51% of youth votes, and Governor Chris Christie (R) getting 49%.

[1] The estimated percent of young people who voted in the governor’s’ races were calculated using: (1) the number of ballots cast in each race according to the media, (2) the youth share of those who voted, based on the exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool, (3) the estimated number of 18-29 year old citizens taken from the Census Current Population Survey, March Demographic File of that year. Edison Research estimates that its exit polls have a margin of error rate of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[2] Candidate support among youth can differ greatly by demographic subgroups, but that data is not public for age by race, age by education, etc.

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