Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI)

Methodology: How Do We Rank the Races?

The Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI) is CIRCLE’s data-based rankings of the elections in which young people have the highest potential to shape the outcome if they are reached, engaged, and supported.

In midterm cycles like 2026, CIRCLE produces three separate YESI rankings: for U.S. Senate, U.S. House (congressional districts, or CDs), and governor races. Two of these—Senate and gubernatorial—share the same geographic level (state) for source data. Congressional district-level rankings require an adjusted data process due to more limited data availability at that geographic level and to account for how redistricting changes geographic boundaries. For 2026, the Congressional-level rankings will be available in the coming weeks.

The YESI is calculated in four main steps:

1. Gather available data about the demographic composition of each geographic area (e.g., the percentage of youth), past voter turnout and registration, the level of investment on youth community (e.g., percentage of nonprofits per 10k residents), and the predicted competitiveness of the upcoming 2026 election in each state or district. 
2. Create composite indices (i.e., scores made up of multiple related indicators) for the demographic makeup of each state and district.
3. Compute an unweighted YESI by adding standardized scores from each component of YESI data.
4. Compute the weighted YESI by adding a “competitiveness score” to the unweighted YESI. This creates a cluster of top-ranking states and districts that are all considered to have at least moderately competitive races.

For all YESI levels, the following indices are created and used to produce final calculations. Composite indices with sub-index components are listed below, where applicable:

• Youth share of the population (percentage under age 30)
• Percent of the population enrolled in undergraduate studies
• Newcomer Index
  • Percent Latino
  • Percent foreign-born
• Economic Challenge Index
  • Median income
  • Unemployment rate
• Youth Partisanship
• High Turnout Index
  • Youth vote propensity
  • Percent with high school diploma
  • Percent married
• Youth registration percentage

State-level YESI (Senate and Governor) calculations additionally include:

• Youth vote choice
• Youth turnout for 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024
• Facilitative election law score
• Youth investment
  • Percentage of nonprofits per 10,000 residents
  • Percentage of nonprofits with a primary youth development mission
  • Higher education budget expenditure
  • K-12 budget expenditure
  • Percent of juveniles in residential placement

Congressional District-level YESI calculations include:

• Youth investment
  • Percentage of nonprofits per 10,000 residents
  • Percentage of nonprofits with a primary youth development mission
  • 2024 youth voter turnout

About competitiveness scores:

All YESI levels then receive a competitiveness score on a scale of 0-3 estimating the level of competitiveness of each YESI level’s elections (0 meaning that the seat was not at all competitive and 3 meaning that it was a tossup). As a measure of prior competitiveness, we also include a "party flip" score that indicates how many times a given YESI level’s election seat has changed parties between like election years.

States and data omitted from the YESI:

States that do not have elections this cycle are omitted from the relevant ranking: i.e., only states with 2026 Senate races are included in the Senate rankings. Moreover, certain indices are subject to state-specific data limitations. For all YESI levels, the following states’ youth turnout data are omitted due to a lack of reliable youth-specific data: AK, DC, HI, MD, MS, NH, ND, SD, UT, WI, WY.

Previous Election Cycles

CIRCLE previously produced the Youth Electoral Significance Index for the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections. You can explore those rankings below.