The Youth Vote in 2024

Updated with data as of November 6, 5:00pm ET

We estimate that 42% of young voters (+/- 1%), ages 18-29, cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, a lower youth turnout than in 2020—when our early estimate put youth turnout above 50%—and approximately on par with the 2016 presidential election.

We also estimate that youth voter turnout in battleground states may have been much higher: 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Young voters cast 14% of all ballots in the 2024 election, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research. While this number may be adjusted in the coming days, and other data sources may show different numbers, this 2024 youth share of the vote was also lower than in 2020 (17%) and 2016 (19%) based on the same data source.

Our full analysis of youth voter turnout and highlights from the youth vote choice and issues data on this page are in our news release here.

Updated with data as of November 11, 10 a.m. ET

Young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 election by 4 points: 51% to 47%. That was a much smaller margin than young voters gave President Biden over Trump in 2020 (+25), but still by far the strongest support for Harris of any age group in this election. Only 1% of young voters backed a third-party or independent candidate, slightly lower than the 3% who did so in 2020.

There was a notable difference by age within the 18-29 age group. Voters ages 18-24 supported Harris by 10 points, while their older peers (ages 25-29) supported Trump by 2 points. In the 2020 election, this group of young people were 21-25. That year, 18- to 24-year-olds supported Biden by 29 points, highlighting a major shift in vote choice for this segment of the youth electorate. 

There were major differences in youth support for both candidates by factors like race, gender, and education.

The Gender Gap: Young Women +17 for Harris, Young Men +14 for Trump

As many observers expected before the election, there was a significant gender gap among young voters. Young women preferred Harris to Trump by a 17-point margin: 58% to 41%. But young men preferred Trump by a 14-point margin: 56% to 42%.

Notably, that gender gap is larger than the gender gap for the electorate overall. Among voters of all ages, 52% of all female voters backed Harris, compared to 46% for Trump (+6). While among all male voters, Trump won 55% to 43% (+12). Young people who identify as nonbinary or in another way other than as a man or woman supported Harris by a 69-point margin.

In past elections, the youth gender gap has been driven largely by young white men’s stronger support for the Republican candidate. In an upcoming analysis we will examine vote choice by race/ethnicity and gender together.

Strong Support for Harris from Youth of Color; White Youth Favor Trump

Black youth and Asian youth voted for Harris over Trump by the highest margin: 74% to 24% among Black youth, and 72% to 23% among Asian youth. Young Hispanic/Latino voters also preferred Harris, but by a smaller margin: 57% to 40%, and white youth voted for Trump over Harris 54% to 44%

Non-College and Rural Youth Favor Trump

There was also a notable gap by educational attainment. Young people whose highest level of education is a high school diploma or less preferred Trump over Harris by a 12-point margin: 55% to 43%. By contrast, youth with some college experience backed Harris by 12 points and those whose highest level of education is a college degree backed Harris by 13 points

Breaking down the data by education alongside race and gender also provides some insights. Young white men preferred Trump regardless of whether they had a college degree. However, young white women with a college degree preferred Harris, and those without favored Trump. Youth of color preferred Harris by similar margins whether they have a college degree or not.

When comparing to the slightly older 30-44 age groups, we find that the youngest white men with a college degree were more likely to vote for Trump than the older voters. On the other hand, the youngest white and nonwhite women without college degrees were more likely to support Harris than their 30- to 44-year-old counterparts.

Rurality was also a factor. Young rural/small town voters preferred Trump by a 22-point margin: 60% to 38%. However, young suburban voters (56% to 43%) and young urban voters (61% to 37%) preferred Harris.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press

Updated with data as of November 11, 10 a.m. ET

While young voters overall supported Kamala Harris by a 4-point margin in this election, that was a much smaller margin than the 25-point support young voters gave President Biden in 2020. Much of that shift appears to be driven by young men, who voted for Biden in 2020 but for Trump in 2024, and especially by young white men.

Early data suggests that there was an extraordinary 31-point gap in youth vote choice by gender, with young women favoring Harris by 17 percentage points, and young men favoring Trump by 14 points.

The data by gender and race combined shows that this shift was largely driven by young white men, who voted for Trump by a 28-point margin. Young Latino men also preferred Trump by a 2-point margin, though that is well within the margin of error. Young Black and Asian women had the highest level of support for Harris.

Some of these numbers represent major shifts from 2020. In that election, young white men supported Biden over Trump by 6 points, young white women by 15 points, and young Latino men by 40 points.

There were also differences by education and gender. Notably, both young men with a college degree and those without a college degree preferred Donald Trump—though the latter by a much larger margin. Young women with a college degree were the most likely to support Harris, voting for her by 30 points.

Issue Priorities by Gender May Have Driven Vote Choice

Our previous analysis of youth issue priorities and vote choice found that young people who named immigration, crime, and the economy were much more likely to vote for President Trump. And young men were more likely than young women to select each of those issues as their top concern this election—especially immigration. Youth who chose immigration as their top issue in 2024 voted for Trump by a nearly 70-point margin.

Meanwhile, youth who selected climate change and abortion were much more likely to vote for Harris, and young women were more than twice as likely than young men to choose abortion as their number one priority.

These differing issue priorities, combined with the extraordinary differences in which candidate young voters preferred based on their #1 issue, partially explains the wide gap between the vote choices of young men and women.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press.

Updated with data as of November 11, 10 a.m. ET

By a large margin, young voters selected the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the country, followed by abortion and immigration. And while young voters who prioritized abortion were overwhelmingly likely to vote for Kamala Harris, youth who considered the economy or immigration their top issue favored Donald Trump by wide margins. 

The AP VoteCast survey allowed voters to choose one of nine issues as the “most important facing the country.” Forty percent of youth selected “the economy and jobs,” 13% chose abortion, and 11% selected immigration as the most important. Young voters were slightly more likely than other age groups to select abortion as their top priority, and they were the only group for whom abortion was in 2nd place as a top issue. Other age groups were more likely to choose immigration than abortion as their top priority.

Young people’s issue priorities shaped their vote choice in the presidential election. While youth overall were more likely to vote for Harris, support was highest among youth who prioritized abortion, climate change, health care, racism, and gun policy. However, youth who prioritized the economy and jobs (which was by far the top youth issue) voted for Donald Trump by a 24-point margin. And young people who were most focused on immigration backed Trump by nearly 70 points.

Issue priorities can vary by race, gender and other factors. In subsequent analyses we’ll explore these differences among groups of youth.

A Third of Harris Voters Chose Her to Oppose Trump

One major question about the youth vote in this election was the potential impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict. While only 4% of youth chose “foreign policy” as their top issue, being able to select only one issue in the poll may fail to provide an accurate picture of the extent to which youth were concerned about the issue. And among youth who did choose foreign policy as their top priority, 8% voted for a third-party candidate, much higher than youth overall (1%).

Notably, when asked which candidate they trusted more to handle “the situation in the Middle East”, 32% said Harris, 45% Trump, 6% both equally, and 16% of youth said neither.

Some ambivalence about the candidates they cast ballots for may also be evident in young people’s answers about whether their vote was motivated more by support for their chosen candidate or opposition to their opponent. When asked whether their vote was more reflective of support for their chosen candidate or opposition to the opponent, 81% of young Trump voters said their vote was for Trump and 19% that it was against Harris. Among youth who voted for Harris, 66% said their vote was for her and 34% that it was against Trump.

Young Voters Favored Abortion Measures Far More than Harris

Nationally, abortion was the #2 issue for young people in this election. In more than a dozen states, including in several key battlegrounds, there were ballot measures related to protecting or codifying access to abortion rights. The majority of those ballot measured were passed.

In all states for which we have reliable data, young voters ages 18-29 massively favored those measures even as they favored Kamala Harris by much slimmer margins or, in Florida and Missouri, favored President Trump.

Our previous research on young conservatives had suggested that young Republicans are more likely than older ones to favor legal abortion. This data seems to reflect that trend, and may also suggest that in these states young people were able to express their views on abortion rights through these state-specific ballot measures while voting for the presidency based on different issues and priorities.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press

Updated with data as of November 11, 10:00am ET

While nationally the youth vote favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 6 points: 52% to 46%, there were major differences by state, and there appears to be an overall trend of increased youth support for Donald Trump compared to the 2020 presidential race.

According to AP VoteCast data, Kamala Harris saw gains over Joe Biden’s numbers with young voters in only three states: Maine, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Meanwhile, in states like Louisiana, Missouri, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Texas, the data suggests that Trump lost the youth vote in 2020 but won it in 2024.

In key battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, where Biden had strong double-digit youth support in 2020, Harris’ still won young voters but by a much smaller single-digit margin.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press

Updated with data as of November 11, 10am ET

The significant shift in youth vote choice (+25 for President Biden over President Trump in 2020, +4 for Harris over Trump in 2024) can be examined and explained in different ways. In other analyses, we have focused on demographic shifts; for example, young men and white youth both preferred Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. We have also looked at the salience of issues like the economy, which was young people’s top priority and drove the youth vote for Trump.

One other way to examine and explain this shift is the partisan and ideological makeup of the electorate. Compared to 2020, young voters in 2024 were more likely to identify as conservative and as Republican. And the young moderates who cast ballots were more likely to vote for Trump

Different Partisan and Ideological Make-Up

While young voters in 2024 were still more likely to identify as Democrats than as Republicans or with neither party, this year’s youth electorate was more Republican than it was in 2020 by 9 percentage points. Democratic-identifying youth dropped by 5 points and those who identify as “neither” decreased by 4 points. Note that this may not indicate ideological shifts in all young people, but in those who turned out to vote in each election.

In addition to the youth electorate’s party identification shifting, their preference for candidates also changed. After supporting Biden by a margin of 33 percentage points In 2020, young people who don’t consider themselves a part of either major party supported Harris by 17 points in 2024. 

There were also slight shifts in ideological identification. The 2024 youth electorate had 3-percentage-point fewer “liberal” youth and 4-points more “conservative” youth. And while the share of young voters who identify as “moderate” was the same in 2020 and 2024 (30% and 29%), moderate voters broke for Trump by a 5-point margin this year after supporting Biden by a 20-point margin in the previous election.

In fact, youth ages 18-29 were the only age group in the 2024 election whose moderate-identifying voters preferred Trump over Harris.

More Young Male Voters of Color Identified as Republicans

As expected from the major gender gap in youth vote choice, there were gender differences in party identification of the youth electorate. Young women were 14 points more likely than young men to identify as Democrats, and young men 11 points more likely than young women to identify as Republicans.

There were also big shifts in party identification by race/ethnicity. Those shifts were strongest among young men, especially young Black men (+20 identifying as Republican compared to 2020) and young Latino men (+14).

Even with those shifts, young Black and Latino men still were more likely to identify as Democrats, while young white were 25 points more likely to identify as Republicans—an 11 point increase over 2020.

There were also more Republican young women in the 2024 youth electorate: 6 percentage points more white women and Black women compared to 2020, and 10 points more Latina women.

Young people who identify as neither major party also made up a smaller part of the 2024 youth electorate. That is especially notable because young people overall are less likely than other age groups to identify with any of the major political parties. 

Other Signs of a New and Different Electorate 

A significant number of young voters in 2024 were voting in a general election for the first time (30%), with some major differences by race. Latino/Hispanic youth had an especially high share of new voters (40%), followed by Asian youth (32%), Black youth (32%), and white youth (26%). A majority of these new voters (85%) don’t have a Bachelor’s degree, and nearly half (46%) have no college experience at all.

Young Latinos and youth without college experience have historically participated at lower rates, so it may be a positive sign that there were more new voters among these groups in 2024. Forty percent of the voting-eligible youth population are young people without college experience, and 38% of all youth votes were cast by this group in 2024, which puts these non-college youth closer to full representation in the electorate.

Updated with data as of November 11, 10:00 am ET

Young Latinos favored Vice President Harris by a substantial 17-point margin over former President Trump in the 2024 presidential election. However, that’s a significant shift from their 2020 vote choice, when they preferred President Biden by a 49-point margin over Trump. That is the largest shift for any racial/ethnic group of youth between the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In an election in which the entire Latino electorate shifted toward Trump compared to 2020, young Latinos tied with the oldest Latinos (ages 65+) in having the highest support for Harris.

This data from the AP VoteCast survey shows Latinos overall with double-digit support for Harris. Other sources, like the National Election pool exit poll, showed a smaller, single-digit margin for Harris among all Latinos.

One of the other highly notable things about the young Latino electorate in 2024 is that it was relatively “new”—meaning, it was full of young people who had never voted before in a general election. While every youth electorate has a sizable percentage of new voters who have aged into voting, forty percent of young Latinos who cast a ballot did so for the first time, compared to about a third of young Asian and Black voters, and a quarter of young white voters.

While this could be a sign that the young Latino electorate expanded, it could also mean that more young Latinos who had voted previously were not engaged or mobilized in this cycle. In subsequent work, we hope to explore that question and what may have made these new Latino voters different from those who had voted before.

Key Differences by Gender and Education

The Latino vote shift toward Donald Trump appears to have been driven largely by young men. While young Latinas backed Harris by a 32-point margin, young Latino men split their vote fairly evenly between Trump and Harris: according to the data they were +2 for Trump, but that is well within the margin of error.

There were also differences by education—both within Latino youth and differences between young Latinos and other young people. Young Latinos without any college experience were less likely than those with some college experience or a degree to favor Harris, but they still favored her by 9 points. That’s a notable difference from the youth electorate overall: among all young voters, those without any college experience preferred Donald Trump.

Youth with postgraduate studies also favored Harris by a similar margin as non-college Latino youth, but those youth with advanced studies are a relatively small group in the sample.

Young Cubans Preferred Trump, Other Latinos Backed Harris

Looking at Latino youth by country of origin, nearly every group preferred Harris to Trump in the 2024 election—with the exception of young Cuban voters, who backed Trump by 23 points and, notably, 87 percent voted for a third-party candidate. Mexican and Puerto Rican youth had the highest support for Kamala Harris. It’s important to note that the sample size for most of these groups, except for Mexican and Puerto Rican youth, are fairly small and thus the data has a higher margin of error

Young Latinos Share Economic Concern, Issue Priorities with their Peers

Like all young voters in 2024, young Latinos overwhelmingly selected the economy and jobs as their top issue priority in this presidential election. More than 40% of young Latinos selected it as their #1 issue, about the same as all voters. No other issue was chosen by more than 12% of young Latinos—abortion and immigration followed the economy with 11% each.

The striking similarities in young Latinos’ issue priorities and those of all young voters may further speak to the fact that the economy was the dominant issue in this election. Because this survey only allowed youth to select one issue, it may obscure other differences in concerns between Latinos and other youth, which we will explore in our subsequent work.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press

Updated with data as of November 6, 11am ET

White youth continue to make up a disproportionate amount of the youth electorate. Despite making up only 56% of the eligible voting population ages 18-29, they made up 66% of young voters in the 2024 election, similar to their 65% share in 2020. This reflects and continues a long-time trend of inequity in voter turnout by race and ethnicity that is driven by differential access and support for civic and political engagement.

White youth favored President Trump by a 10-point margin over Vice President Harris in the 2024 presidential election. In 2020, despite showing the strongest support of any racial/ethnic group for Trump, white youth still ultimately supported President Biden by 6 points. Notably, that 16-point swing toward Trump is still the smallest shift for any racial/ethnic group of youth between the 2020 and 2024 elections.

All age groups of white voters favored Trump over Harris, but only 30-to-44-year-olds supported Harris more than the younger 18-29 age group.

Key Differences by Gender and Education

White youth had the smallest gender gap in vote choice of any racial group. Young white men provided President Trump with the highest support of any race/gender group of youth, overwhelmingly preferring him to Harris (63% vs 35%). Young white women split their vote, with 49% supporting each candidate. White youth underwent a substantial shift toward Trump from 2020, when young white men favored Biden over Trump by 6 points and young white women chose Biden by 15 points. 

There were also differences by education. Young white voters with postgraduate experience and college graduates both supported Harris: +14 and +4, respectively. Meanwhile, young people with some college experience (which includes current college students) narrowly supported Trump (+3), and those with only high school experience overwhelmingly favored Trump by 34 points. Notably, white youth without college experience supported Trump by 14 percentage points more than the entire (all ages) electorate with that level of educational attainment.

White Youth Share Economic Concerns, Other Priorities Differ by Gender

Like all other racial/ethnic groups, white youth ranked the economy and jobs as their top issue in this election (41%).  Abortion (14%) and immigration (13%) were the next two most frequently chosen priorities. And when it comes to those other issues beyond the economy there were significant divides by gender, likely causing some of the difference in their vote choice.

For example, 16% of young white men selected immigration as their top issue concern, compared to 10% of young white women. On the other hand, 19% of young women picked abortion as their top issue, compared to 8% of young white men.

Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press