One Week Away From Election Day, Most States Are Behind 2020 in Youth Voter Registration
Author: Katie Hilton, Sam Searles
Contributors: Alberto Medina, Mariani Germán
Updated with late October 2024 data.
The final CIRCLE analysis of youth voter registration in 41 states shows that the vast majority have fewer young people registered to vote than they did on Election Day 2020. At the same time, there have been increases in some states since early September, particularly among the youngest eligible voters, and there is still time for campaigns and organizations to reach and register youth—especially in the 25 states in the country that have same-day voter registration.
While comparing to 2020 means comparing to a historic year for youth voter participation, the extent to which a majority of states have fewer registered young voters than they did at the time of the 2020 election underscores that registration remains a major barrier to youth voter participation. This data highlights where those barriers are most acute, and where continued youth outreach is most necessary.
At Least Nine States Have More Registered Youth this Cycle
Using voter file data aggregated by Catalist, we calculated the number of youth (ages 18-29) registered to vote in each state with data available as of October 28, 2024, and compared it to the number of youth registered on November 3, 2020. We find that nine states have more youth in that age group registered to vote now than they did in 2020, including major battleground states like Michigan and Nevada, as well as Kansas, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina.
The number of states with more registered youth could be higher. Not all states include reliable birth date data in their voter files, meaning voter registration counts are not available for all states. In addition, while we include all states for which we have data in this analysis, more than a dozen states have not updated Catalist voter file data since before September 17 of this year, which was National Voter Registration Day. We note those states in the charts and maps below.
About the Data
When Americans age out of the 18-29 (or, in the case of the data below, 18-19) age group, the number of “youth” registered to vote in that state decreases. Other decreases could also be caused by young people moving away from the state. Therefore, a state will necessarily start any given election cycle with fewer registered youth than in the previous election.
This data can provide a sense of how well a state is doing at registering new young voters: those who have aged into the electorate, those who may have moved to the state, and those who were not previously registered there for whatever reason.
Please note that the data expresses %-change increases or decreases—meaning, the difference between 100,000 youth registered in 2020 and 90,000 in 2024 would be shown as -10%. These numbers do not correspond to what percentage of youth in any given state are registered to vote.
While the majority of states for which we have data have fewer youth registered to youth now than in 2020, more than a dozen of them are only 5% or less behind their November 2020 numbers. However, other states like Florida, Connecticut, and especially Iowa, have much lower youth registration compared to 2020, which could signal lower participation next week.
New Voter Registration Efforts Pay Off
CIRCLE conducts the same registration analysis for youth ages 18-19, newly eligible voters since the 2022 midterm election. In September, all but two states for which we had data had fewer 18- and 19-year-olds registered than in November 2020.
Now, however, 13 states (MI, NV, TN, MT, IL, OR, NY, CO, GA, WA, KS, OH, ME) have more youth in that age group registered to vote than in November 2020. As with the full 18-29 age group, Michigan and Nevada lead the way in registering more new voters.
Eleven other states (FL, MN, OK, VT, DE, NC, MO, IA, RI, PA, NE) are 10% or less behind 2020 in the number of youth ages 18-19 registered to vote. Several of these states have same-day registration, so continued outreach could help youth register and vote.
It is notable that more states have improved from their 2020 voter registration numbers among the youngest eligible voters than among all under-30 youth. New voters usually lag behind in voter registration and turnout. But it appears that efforts to focus on this age group have paid off in several states, which saw major increases since July in the number of 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote.
Eleven states have increased their number of registered youth in that age group by 25% or more, with the highest increases in Alabama (+53%), Indiana (+40%), New Mexico (+39%), Tennessee (+37%), and Arizona (+35%).
However, voter participation among the youngest Americans, who are newly eligible to cast a ballot and must register for the first time, remains a persistent challenge. In 2020 we estimated that 46% of youth aged 18-19 cast a ballot, compared to 50% of the full 18-29 age group.
In that election, we also tracked lags in youth voter registration among 18- and 19-year-olds compared to 2016. However, most states managed to close those gaps, and by October 2020, a majority of states had more youth in that age group registered to vote than in October 2016. This shows the work can be done, if efforts and resources are poured into voter registration and engagement for this age group.
The 2020 voter registration numbers also show us that these comparative numbers do not necessarily indicate where youth turnout will be strongest. But it is an early indication of states where young people have been reached and engaged and where they may have an impact in this election.
