The Youth Vote in 2024
It's Election Week! The 2024 general election is a major opportunity for youth to exercise their democratic rights, use their political voices, and shape the future of the country.
As part of our work to understand young people’s civic learning and participation, we have been tracking major trends about the youth vote and will be sharing key data on election week about young people’s participation, priorities, and choices at the ballot box.
Here’s some of what we know about young voters immediately following the election.
Data + Analysis: Young Voters in 2024
Updated with data as of November 6, 11am ET
Young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 election by 6 points: 52% to 46%. That was a much smaller margin than young voters gave President Biden over Trump in 2020 (+25), but still by far the strongest support for Harris of any age group in this election. Five percent of young voters backed a third-party or independent candidate, slightly higher than the 3% who did so in 2020.
There were major differences in youth support for both candidates by factors like race, gender, and education.
The Gender Gap: Young Women +18 for Harris, Young Men +14 for Trump
As many observers expected before the election, there was a significant gender gap among young voters. Young women preferred Harris to Trump by an 18-point margin: 58% to 40%. But young men preferred Trump by an 14-point margin: 42% to 56%. Notably, that gender gap is larger than the gender gap for the electorate overall. Among voters of all ages, 53% of all female voters backed Harris, compared to 46% for Trump (+7). While among all male voters, Trump won 54% to 44% (+10). The data does not allow us to reliably share the vote choice of gender identities other than man or woman.
In past elections, the youth gender gap has been driven largely by young white men’s stronger support for the Republican candidate. In an upcoming analysis we will examine vote choice by race/ethnicity and gender together.
Strong Support for Harris from Youth of Color; White Youth Favor Trump
Black youth and Asian youth voted for Harris over Trump by the highest margin: 54% to 23% among Black youth, and 72% to 23% among Asian youth. Young Hispanic/Latino voters also preferred Harris, but by a smaller margin: 58% to 38%, and white youth voted for Trump over Harris 54% to 44%.
Non-College and Rural Youth Favor Trump
There was also a notable gap by educational attainment. Young people whose highest level of education is a high school diploma or less preferred Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin: 54% to 44%. By contrast, youth with at least some college experience backed Harris by at least 12 points.
Similarly, young rural voters preferred Trump by a 21-point margin: 59% to 38%. However, young suburban voters (56% to 42%) and young urban voters (61% to 37%) strongly preferred Harris.
Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press
Updated with data as of November 5, 8:30pm
By a large margin, young voters selected the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the country, followed by abortion and immigration. And while young voters who prioritized abortion were overwhelmingly likely to vote for Kamala Harris, youth who considered the economy or immigration their top issue favored Donald Trump by wide margins.
The AP VoteCast survey allowed voters to choose one of nine issues as the “most important facing the country.” Forty percent of youth selected “the economy and jobs,” 13% chose abortion, and 11% selected immigration as the most important. Young voters were slightly more likely than other age groups to select abortion as their top priority, and they were the only group for whom abortion was in 2nd place as a top issue. Other age groups were more likely to choose immigration than abortion as their top priority.
Young people’s issue priorities shaped their vote choice in the presidential election. While youth overall were more likely to vote for Harris, support was highest among youth who prioritized abortion, climate change, health care, racism, and gun policy. However, youth who prioritized the economy and jobs (which was by far the top youth issue) voted for Donald Trump by a nearly 20-point margin. And young people who were most focused on immigration backed Trump by nearly 70 points.
Issue priorities can vary by race, gender and other factors. In subsequent analyses we’ll explore these differences among groups of youth.
A Third of Harris Voters Chose Her to Oppose Trump
One major question about the youth vote in this election was the potential impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict. While only 4% of youth chose “foreign policy” as their top issue, being able to select only one issue in the poll may fail to provide an accurate picture of the extent to which youth were concerned about the issue. And among youth who did choose foreign policy as their top priority, 11% voted for a third-party candidate, much higher than youth overall (5%).
Notably, when asked which candidate they trusted more to handle “the situation in the Middle East”, 33% said Harris, 43% Trump, 6% both equally, and 17% of youth said neither.
Some ambivalence about the candidates they cast ballots for may also be evident in young people’s answers about whether their vote was motivated more by support for their chosen candidate or opposition to their opponent. When asked whether their vote was more reflective of support for their chosen candidate or opposition to the opponent, 81% of young Trump voters said their vote was for Trump and 18% that it was against Harris. Among youth who voted for Harris, 66% said their vote was for her and 34% that it was against Trump.
Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press
Updated with data as of November 5, 11:00pm ET
While nationally the youth vote favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 8 points: 52% to 44%, there were major differences by state, and there appears to be an overall trend of increased youth support for Donald Trump compared to the 2020 presidential race.
According to AP VoteCast data, Kamala Harris saw gains over Joe Biden’s numbers with young voters in only three states: Maine, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Meanwhile, in states like Louisiana, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Nebraska, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and the key swing state of Nevada, the data suggests that Trump lost the youth vote in 2020 but won it in 2024.
The table below shows youth vote choice by states. Data for all states is not currently available, and this data may be updated in the coming days. We will continue to update the table as newer data is available.
Source: Unless otherwise noted, data comes from CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press
Updated with data as of November 5, 8:30pm ET
Young voters ages 18-29 cast 14% of all ballots in the 2024 election, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Exit poll numbers are usually updated in the hours and days after the polls close, and that youth share may change accordingly. This 2024 youth share of the vote is lower than in 2020 (17%) and to 2016 (19%).
The youth share tells us what percentage of votes were cast by youth, but it does not tell us if youth participation was high or low. In 2016, for example, youth made up 19% of voters but our early estimate of youth voter turnout was between 42%-44%. Meanwhile in 2020, an election with very high turnout from other age groups, the youth share of the vote was lower (17%) but we estimated turnout was between 52%-55%.
According to early media reports, overall voter turnout in this election appears to have been high.
In the coming days, as soon as enough votes are counted, CIRCLE will produce and share here an early estimate of youth voter turnout.
Looking Back: Pre-Election Analyses
CIRCLE Pre-2024 Election Youth Survey
CIRCLE's early poll of youth (ages 18-34) ahead of the 2024 presidential election highlights major trends in young people's political views and participation.
State by State: Youth Voter Registration
In 36 states where data is available, we are tracking changes in youth voter registration compared to 2020.
Election Laws and Policies
CIRCLE research examines how changes in voting and registration policies can shape youth voting in the 2024 election.