Youth Voter Registration Is a Major Challenge in the 2024 Election
Author: Katie Hilton, Alberto Medina
Contributors: Ruby Belle Booth, Mariani Germán
A new CIRCLE analysis of youth voter registration in 36 states shows that most states are far behind November 2020 in the number of young people registered to vote.
While lower registration counts are to be expected given that millions of people register to vote in the final months before Election Day, the extent to which a majority of states have fewer registered young voters than they did at the time of the 2020 election underscores that registering youth remains a major task in the months ahead. This data highlights where youth outreach and registration are most necessary.
Using voter file data aggregated by Catalist, we calculated the number of youth (ages 18-29) registered to vote in each state below as of July 1, 2024, and compared it to the number of youth registered in November 3, 2020. (Because not all states reliably include birth date data in their voter files, voter registration counts are not available for all states.)
About the Data
When Americans age out of the 18-29 (or, in the case of the data below, 18-19) age group, the number of “youth” registered to vote in that state decreases. Other decreases could also be caused by young people moving away from the state. Therefore, a state will necessarily start any given election cycle with fewer registered youth than in the previous election.
This data can provide a sense of how well a state is doing at registering new young voters: those who have aged into the electorate, those who may have moved to the state, and those who were not previously registered there for whatever reason.
Please note that the data expresses %-change increases or decreases—meaning, the difference between 100,000 youth registered in 2020 and 90,000 in 2024 would be shown as -10%. These numbers do not correspond to what percentage of youth in any given state are registered to vote.
We find that only five states: Nevada (+6%), Michigan (+5%), Kansas (+2%), West Virginia (+2%) and Texas (+0.1%) are already ahead of November 2020 in the number of young people registered to vote. Notably, Michigan and Nevada are among the states that recently implemented automatic voter registration, which can improve registration rates among youth.
Fourteen states (CO, OK, CA, NY, TN, NJ, WA, DE, NC, OR, MA, VA, NM, VT) are behind their November 2020 numbers, but by 10% or less, and may be expected to match or surpass their youth voter registrations from the past presidential election.
States like Louisiana (-21%), Kentucky (-23%), Montana (-31%), South Dakota (-35%) and Iowa (-48%) are much farther behind. Significant work will be required in those states to ensure all young people have access to voter registration and the opportunity to cast a ballot in 2024.
Major Efforts Needed to Register New Voters
The same analysis, conducted for youth ages 18-19 who are newly eligible voters since the 2022 midterm election, reveals an even starker picture of outreach work needed: in every state for which we have data, there are fewer 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote now than in November 2020.
New York and Washington state are less than 10% behind November 2020. Michigan, Delaware, Colorado, Nevada, and Vermont are behind by 20% or less. But most states are more than 33% behind their number of 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote in the last presidential election, with states like Arizona, Kentucky, Alabama, and South Dakota more than 60% behind.
The voter participation of the youngest Americans, who are newly eligible to cast a ballot and must register for the first time, remains a persistent challenge. In 2020 we estimated that 46% of youth aged 18-19 cast a ballot, compared to 50% of the full 18-29 age group.
In that election, we also tracked lags in youth voter registration among 18- and 19-year-olds compared to 2016. However, most states managed to close those gaps, and by October 2020 a majority of states had more youth in that age group registered to vote than in October of 2016. This shows the work can be done, if efforts and resources are poured into voter registration and engagement for that age group.
State Spotlights
The voter registration numbers in some states are notable for several key reasons, including:
Nevada
Nevada is one of the handful of states where there are already more youth (ages 18-29) registered to vote than in 2020. As previously noted, Nevada recently implemented automatic voter registration. However, high youth voter registration does not necessarily lead to higher youth turnout; in fact, some research has shown that people who are automatically registered to vote may be less likely to cast a ballot without consistent outreach and mobilization. We also rank Nevada as one of the key states where young people can influence this year’s presidential and Senate elections.
Michigan
Similar to Nevada, the number of registered Michigan youth (ages 18-29) is already up compared to 2020—another state where youth can have major electoral impact this November. Michigan has also recently adopted automatic voter registration; this data points to the positive potential of that policy to expand the electorate.
Arizona
Among the major battleground states in which youth could influence election results this November, Arizona has some of the sharpest decreases in young registered voters compared to 2020: -19% among ages 18-29, and -64% among ages 18-19. Some of that may be due to registration laws: the state doesn’t have automatic registration, pre-registration, or same-day registration–which might have allowed some voters to register during the 2022 election or this year’s presidential primaries. Campaigns and organizers who want to engage the critical youth vote in this key state will have to redouble their efforts to register young people in other ways.
South Dakota
South Dakota had the lowest youth voter turnout rate of any state in 2020 among youth ages 18-29 (32%) and ages 18-19 (12%). It is especially concerning that it has the largest decrease in youth voter registrations compared to 2020 among that youngest age group, and the second-largest among youth ages 18-29. South Dakota is one of the few states in the country without online voter registration and it has no other policies, like pre-registration or automatic registration, that facilitate registration for residents.
