Youth Voter Registration Increasing; Still Lags Behind 2020
Author: Katie Hilton, Sam Searles
Contributors: Alberto Medina, Mariani Germán
Updated with September 2024 data.
The latest CIRCLE analysis of youth voter registration in 34 states shows that the vast majority of them have fewer young people registered to vote as of September 3 of this year than they did on Election Day 2020. At the same time, there have been significant increases in some states since July, particularly among the youngest eligible voters, and there is still time for campaigns and organizations to reach and register youth.
While lower registration counts are to be expected right now, given that millions of people will still register to vote in the coming weeks—and, in the case of states, with same-day voter registration on Election Day itself—the extent to which a majority of states have fewer registered young voters than they did at the time of the 2020 election underscores that registering youth remains a major task. This data highlights where youth outreach and registration are most necessary.
Using voter file data aggregated by Catalist, we calculated the number of youth (ages 18-29) registered to vote in each state with data available as of September 3, 2024, and compared it to the number of youth registered on November 3, 2020. Note: Because not all states reliably include birth date data in their voter files, voter registration counts are not available for all states. We also excluded data from states that have not updated their voter files since July 1, 2024.
We find that eight states: MI (+8%), OK (+5%), WV (+5%), KS (+4%), NV (+3%), TX (+1%), MA (+1%), and TN (+1%) are slightly ahead of November 2020 in the number of young people (aged 18-29) registered to vote. Notably, Michigan and Nevada are among the states that recently implemented automatic voter registration, which can improve registration rates among youth.
About the Data
When Americans age out of the 18-29 (or, in the case of the data below, 18-19) age group, the number of “youth” registered to vote in that state decreases. Other decreases could also be caused by young people moving away from the state. Therefore, a state will necessarily start any given election cycle with fewer registered youth than in the previous election.
This data can provide a sense of how well a state is doing at registering new young voters: those who have aged into the electorate, those who may have moved to the state, and those who were not previously registered there for whatever reason.
Please note that the data expresses %-change increases or decreases—meaning, the difference between 100,000 youth registered in 2020 and 90,000 in 2024 would be shown as -10%. These numbers do not correspond to what percentage of youth in any given state are registered to vote.
Thirteen states, CO (-1%), NM (-2%), WA (-4%), IN (-4%), NY (-4%), NC (-4%), DE (-5%), OR (-5%), NJ (-6%), VA (-7%), VT (-8%), MN (-9%), NE (-9%), are behind their November 2020 numbers by less than 10%, and could match or exceed them with continued youth outreach and voter registration efforts.
Two states, Iowa (-44%) and Montana (-26%), are much farther behind their 2020 numbers of youth registered to vote. That could play a major role in the Montana Senate race, which we rank as the top Senate election in the country in which youth could have a major influence. Whether that potential for electoral influence is fulfilled will depend, in large part, on efforts to register young voters until Election Day.
Major Efforts Needed to Register New Voters
The same analysis, conducted for youth ages 18-19 who are newly eligible voters since the 2022 midterm election, reveals an even starker picture of the outreach work needed: in all but two states for which we have data (Washington +5%, Michigan +4%) there are fewer 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote now than in November 2020.
Ten states, OR (- 0.2%), NY (- 0.5%), OK (-3%), VT (-3%), CO (-5%), NV (-6%), IL (-7%), RI (-9%), MA (-10%), and FL (-10%) are 10% or less behind their respective November 2020 youth registration counts. But most states are more than 20% behind their number of 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote in the last presidential election. Pennsylvania’s youth voter registration in this age group is 40% behind, outdone only by Arizona, which trails its 2020 totals by 44%. Both of those states also rank highly on this year’s presidential and senate YESI rankings of races where youth could have a major impact—just like Montana, that potential influence could be undercut by low youth voter registration.
On the other hand, several states have seen major increases since July in the number of 18- and 19-year-olds registered to vote. Eleven states have increased their number of youth in that age group registered by 25% or more, with the highest increases in Alabama (+53%), Indiana (+40%), New Mexico (+39%), Tennessee (+37%), and Arizona (+35%). While those major increases are partly due to states having relatively few newly eligible youth registered to vote earlier this summer, it is a positive sign for states like Indiana, New Mexico, and Tennessee, which had some of the lowest youth voter turnout rates in the country in 2020.
The voter participation of the youngest Americans, who are newly eligible to cast a ballot and must register for the first time, remains a persistent challenge. In 2020 we estimated that 46% of youth aged 18-19 cast a ballot, compared to 50% of the full 18-29 age group.
In that election, we also tracked lags in youth voter registration among 18- and 19-year-olds compared to 2016. However, most states managed to close those gaps, and by October 2020, a majority of states had more youth in that age group registered to vote than in October of 2016. This shows the work can be done, if efforts and resources are poured into voter registration and engagement for this age group.
State Spotlights
The voter registration numbers in some states are notable for several key reasons, including:
Nevada
Nevada is one of the handful of states where there are already more youth (ages 18-29) registered to vote than in 2020. As previously noted, Nevada recently implemented automatic voter registration. However, high youth voter registration does not necessarily lead to higher youth turnout; in fact, some research has shown that people who are automatically registered to vote may be less likely to cast a ballot without consistent outreach and mobilization. We also rank Nevada as one of the key states where young people can influence this year’s presidential and Senate elections.
Michigan
Michigan—another state where youth can have major electoral impact this November— already has more youth ages 18-29 and 18-19 registered to vote now than in November 2020. Michigan has also recently adopted automatic voter registration; this data points to the positive potential of that policy to expand the electorate.
Arizona
Among the major battleground states in which youth could influence election results this November, Arizona has some of the sharpest decreases in young registered voters compared to 2020: -14% among ages 18-29, and -44% among ages 18-19. Some of that may be due to registration laws: the state doesn’t have automatic registration, pre-registration, or same-day registration–which might have allowed some voters to register during the 2022 election or this year’s presidential primaries. Campaigns and organizers who want to engage the critical youth vote in this key state will have to redouble their efforts to register young people in other ways.
