Youth Voting in the 2012 Primaries
Throughout the 2012 primaries, CIRCLE conducted state-by-state analyses of youth voting in the Republican Party's nominating contests. On this page you can revisit the day-after youth turnout estimates we calculated for each state contest, as well as analyses on who youth supported throughout the primaries. All of our estimates were based on the best available data at the time and contingent on exit polls and other sources for our calculations.
4% of Young Iowans Participate in Caucus; Overwhelmingly Support Ron Paul
Four percent of eligible Iowa voters under the age of 30 participated in last night’s presidential caucuses, according to preliminary analysis by The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) drew the support of 48% of the under-30 caucus-goers, with Rick Santorum coming in second among young people with 23%; Mitt Romney drew just 14% of the young voters.
According to CIRCLE’s estimate, approximately 8,800 young people turned out for Ron Paul in last night’s caucus. In comparison, at least 30,000 young people turned out for Barack Obama in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, contributing to his victory there. Almost twice as many young voters supported Obama in 2008 as supported all the 2012 Republican candidates combined. The 48% support for Rep. Paul was the highest level of support for any candidate among any age group in yesterday’s Caucuses. (Mitt Romney won 33% of the votes of ages 65 and older, the second strongest concentration of support.) Youth represented a typical proportion of all the Iowa Caucus-goers in 2012 at 15%.
“For the second election in a row, youth played an important role in the Iowa Caucuses,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “In 2008, they turned out strong and gave their support to both parties’ Iowa Caucus winners, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee. In 2012, they turned out at a more typical rate but threw such a high proportion of their votes to Ron Paul that he finished close. It is statistically unlikely that the young Paul supporters of 2012 had caucused for Obama in 2008. It is more likely that a different group was mobilized in each year.”
Because of lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic Caucuses.
The 2012 youth turnout was the same as in 2004 (the last year in which only one party had a competitive race). In the two recent years that had both Republican and Democratic competitive races, the youth turnout was 13% in 2008 and 3% in 2000.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held caucuses, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive caucus.
Youth Voter Turnout: 15%; Ron Paul Wins Youth Vote
Fifteen percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in New Hampshire participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).
Young voters supported Ron Paul by a margin of 20 percentage points and more than doubled his youth votes since the 2008 New Hampshire primary. Compared to 2008, Mitt Romney drew about as many young voters again in 2012.
“Although young voters did not turn out at a particularly high rate this year, they did have an impact by concentrating their votes for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), helping him come in second behind former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA),” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Dr. Paul’s 46% support from 18- to 29-year-olds was the strongest level of support for any candidate by any age group.”
Youth turnout declined from the 2004 New Hampshire primary, and while no two primary years are the same, 2012 is best compared to 2004 because only one party had a competitive race during both years. In election years in which both Republicans and Democrats held competitive races in New Hampshire, 2000 and 2008, youth turned out to vote at a rate of 28% and 43%, respectively. However, the total number of young voters in yesterday’s Republican primary, approximately 30,000 29,000, is comparable to is just 4,000 more than the number of young people who voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire primary: 26,000.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.
In 2008, 31% of young voters in New Hampshire supported John McCain, who won the primary. Ron Paul had support from 18% of the young voters, and Romney had 23%.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Youth Turnout 8%; Paul Wins Youth Vote Again
Eight percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in South Carolina participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Thirty-one percent of these young voters supported Congressman Ron Paul, followed by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 28%, Rick Santorum at 21%, and Mitt Romney at 16%.
Paul increased his support among young South Carolina voters more than fivefold since 2008, drawing an extra 13,671 youth votes. However, compared to Paul’s support in 2012, Barack Obama drew almost three times as many young voters in the 2008 South Carolina Democratic primary and went on to win a majority of the youth vote in that state in the general election.
Total youth turnout doubled compared to the most recent year in which only one party held a competitive primary, 2004, but it fell compared to 2008, when South Carolinians had the opportunity to vote in either a Republican or Democratic competitive primary. Overall youth turnout was higher in 2008 (at 19%) and in 2000 with (11%), but in those years both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in South Carolina. In the 2008 primary, an estimated 44,320 young people voted in the Republican primaries. In 2012, about 54,105 young people voted – an 18% increase.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.
Paul’s estimated 16,773 young votes makes him the most successful Republican candidate in the South Carolina primary in either 2008 or 2012 in terms of the youth vote, but Barack Obama drew almost 50,000 young votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary in 2008.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
4% of Young Floridians Vote; Romney Wins Among Youth
Four percent of eligible Florida voters under the age of 30 participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), and they voted for former Gov. Mitt Romney ahead of Rep. Ron Paul by a margin of 16 percentage points – even though youth were Romney’s weakest age group and Paul drew almost four times as many young voters as he did in the 2008 primary.
The youth turnout, at 4%, was higher than it had been in 2004, the last time only one party held a contested Florida primary. Recent years in which both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in Florida, 2000 and 2008, youth turned out at a rate of 4% and 13%, respectively.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in Florida’s uncontested Democratic primary.
CIRCLE Director Peter Levine noted, “Next up is Nevada, another small state, where fewer than 5,000 young people participated in the Republican caucuses in 2008. It would be possible for a candidate like Paul to win the youth vote in Nevada with a concentrated effort. Mitt Romney drew more young voters in Florida this year than in 2008, but the turnout still raises questions about his appeal to youth.”
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Only 1% of Young Nevadans Participate; Paul Wins Youth Again
One percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Nevada participated in Saturday’s Republican caucus, compared to the 2008 caucus, when 5% of eligible young Nevadans participated in the Democratic and Republican caucuses combined, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).
This year, Rep. Ron Paul won the youth vote in Nevada after also earning the majority in both Iowa and New Hampshire. CIRCLE estimates that only approximately 1,000 young voters supported him in this year’s caucus, while former Gov. Mitt Romney drew slightly less than 1,000 votes from Nevadan caucus-goers under 30. By comparison, more than 15,000 young people participated in the 2008 Nevada Democratic caucuses.
“These very low numbers raise questions about whether Ron Paul can compete in big-state primaries and whether Mitt Romney can draw significant youth support,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. “The McCain/Palin campaign performed poorly among young people in 2008, and Mitt Romney has an opportunity to improve, but so far, the primary and caucus turnout rates provide no evidence that he has connected with young people.”
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in the uncontested Democratic primary.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held caucuses, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive caucus.
Youth Turnout Triples in Arizona and Michigan
Six percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Arizona and seven percent in Michigan participated in yesterday’s primaries, according to exclusive preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).
Mitt Romney was the third choice of Michigan’s young Republican voters with 26% of the under-30 vote, following Ron Paul, who earned 37%, and Rick Santorum with 32%. In Arizona, he won an outright majority (52%) of young voters, who were his strongest age group.
The youth turnout tripled in both Arizona and Michigan between 2012 and 2004. While no two primary years are the same, we compare the 2012 caucus to the 2004 since in both cases only one party had a competitive race.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participate in Democratic caucuses.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the primaries and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Romney Now Leads in Total Youth Votes
The shape of the youth vote in the Republican primary campaign is beginning to emerge. We have calculated exclusive estimates of the total number of voters under age 30 who supported the Republican candidates in all states where exit or entrance polls have been conducted so far.
According to our estimates, Rep. Ron Paul held a clear lead in the youth vote until data from Michigan and Arizona put former Gov. Mitt Romney slightly ahead. Former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich have lagged consistently behind. Their totals coming into Super Tuesday are: Romney 115,000, Paul 112,000, Santorum 74,000 and Gingrich 44,500.
Although Paul’s youth support continues to draw media attention and Romney’s popularity among the demographic is advancing, Barack Obama drew far more votes in primaries and caucuses from Americans under 30 in his 2008 campaign than all the Republican candidates combined. In fact, both Paul and Romney have drawn only a bit more than half as many votes as Obama did at this point in his 2008 campaign. By this time in the 2008 election, Obama had 200,000 votes from young people. Overall, the Democratic primary campaign of 2008 produced a much higher turnout than the Republican primary campaign of 2012: 477,000 votes versus 360,000 votes so far.
The turnout difference between 2008 and 2012 could be a sign that youth engagement has declined, but it could also be an indication that young people remain largely in the Democratic column today, after supporting Obama by a 68-32% margin in 2008 and then choosing Democratic House candidates over Republicans by a 57-40% margin in 2010.
Youth Turnout 5%; Romney, Paul, Santorum Tied for Youth Support
Approximately 5% of eligible citizens under the age of 30 participated in the Super Tuesday contests, according to preliminary, exclusive analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Youth turnout was lower yesterday than it was in 2008 in all the states that also held primaries and caucuses in 2008, partly because only the Republican primaries were contested this year.
Combining the five Super Tuesday states in which exit polls were conducted with adequate youth samples, CIRCLE estimates that 88,000 total youth voted for Rep. Ron Paul, with about 88,000 who voted for former Sen. Rick Santorum, about 86,000 for former Gov. Mitt Romney, and about 43,000 for former Speaker Newt Gingrich. These estimates essentially show a three-way split in total youth votes for Paul, Santorum and Romney on Super Tuesday. The candidates performed differently in each state, however: Paul came in first among youth voters in Virginia; Santorum, in Ohio and Tennessee; Romney, in Massachusetts; and Gingrich, in Georgia.
In all of the primaries and caucuses so far (excluding states where there were no exit or entrance polls about youth vote choice), youth vote tallies stand at approximately 201,000 for Romney, 200,000 for Paul, 162,000 for Santorum, and 87,000 for Gingrich. By this time in the 2008 primary campaign, Barack Obama had drawn more than six times as many youth votes as any of the Republican 2012 candidates, with about 1,365,000 youth votes (although more primaries were contested on or before Super Tuesday in 2008).
“So far, the Republican primary shows a strikingly even race for the youth vote, with no candidate really winning the young Republicans’ allegiance,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. “The results so far suggest that Republicans have some work to do to build youth support.”
At this point, Romney has won the youth vote in three states (Florida, Arizona, and Massachusetts); Paul, in six states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan and Virginia); Santorum, in two states (Ohio and Tennessee); and Gingrich, in one state (Georgia).
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in this year’s uncontested Democratic primaries.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Santorum Wins Both States
Eight percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Alabama and five percent in Mississippi participated in yesterday’s primaries, according to exclusive preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).
Former Sen. Rick Santorum was the overwhelming choice of young Republican voters in Alabama and Mississippi with 41% and 45% of the under-30 vote, respectively. In Alabama, Gingrich followed with 28%, while former Gov. Mitt Romney only gained 16% of youth support. In Mississippi, Romney snatched a close second-place finish with 24% of youth vote, while former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich won 22%. Rep. Ron Paul finished with 12% youth support in Alabama and 9% in Mississippi.
The difference in youth turnout in Mississippi between 2012 (5%) and 1996 (3%) is within the margin of error. While no two primary years are the same, we compare the 2012 caucus to the 1996, since in both cases only one party had a competitive Republican primary race. No youth turnout information is available from the 1996 Alabama primary.
“Santorum performed poorly among young people in the early caucuses and primaries, as he did in his last Pennsylvania Senate race,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. “But he has improved his showing since Michigan, probably on the strength of socially conservative youth.”
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s Democratic primaries.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the primaries and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Youth Turnout 4%; Young People Back Romney
Four percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 participated in yesterday’s Illinois primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Youth turnout in the Illinois primary rose from 1996 to 2012, both years in which the Republican Party held a competitive race, but youth turnout dropped significantly from 2008 (18%), when both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in Illinois.
Young voters supported former Gov. Mitt Romney by a margin of 5 percentage points over former Sen. Rick Santorum. Although Romney won the Illinois youth vote, he performed considerably better with older voters. Including all the primary and caucus states for which exit poll estimates of youth vote-choice are available, the cumulative total of young votes stands at approximately 246,000 for Romney, 224,000 for Santorum, 220,000 for Rep. Ron Paul, and 114,000 for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Although the states that had voted by this point in the 2008 race were somewhat different, Barack Obama had won about 750,000 votes by this time. See the graph below for cumulative 2012 youth vote statistics.
“Although Mitt Romney is the front-runner in the race for Republican youth votes, he and all the other Republican presidential candidates have work to do if they hope to draw substantial numbers of young voters in November,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the primaries and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Just 2% of Young People Vote; Santorum Dominates Youth Vote
Two percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Louisiana participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by CIRCLE (The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement). The youth turnout rose slightly between 2012 and 2004. While no two primary years are the same, we compare the 2012 primary to 2004 since in both cases only one party had a competitive race. Overall youth turnout was 7% in 2008 and 3% in 2000, but in those years both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in Louisiana. Fifty-one percent of young voters supported former Senator Rick Santorum; Rep. Ron Paul gained the second most youth votes with 23%.
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
Youth Turnout 8% in Wisconsin, 2% in Maryland
Two percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Maryland and eight percent in Wisconsin participated in yesterday’s primaries, according to exclusive preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).
Former Gov. Mitt Romney was the top choice of Wisconsin’s young Republican voters, with 32% of the under-30 vote, followed by Rep. Ron Paul, who won 30% of the youth votes. Former Sen. Rick Santorum placed third, with 28% of the votes. In Maryland, Romney placed second, with 28% of young voters, and Santorum won the youth vote, with 37% of the votes.
“Santorum’s first-place finish among young voters in Maryland and Romney’s narrow win in Wisconsin reinforce the fact that young Republicans are not sold on Romney,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine.
The youth turnout increased in Wisconsin from 2004, 2%, to 2012, 8%. Although no two primary years are the same, we compare the 2012 primaries to 2004 since in both cases only one party held a competitive race.
No comparative historical information is available in Maryland. Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in Democratic primaries.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the primaries and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.
