The Top 50 U.S. House Races Where Youth Can Shape 2024 Election Results
CIRCLE's Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI) is a data-based ranking of the top races where young people have the highest potential to influence results in the next election. Our main YESI visualization highlights the top 10 states and districts where youth could have a decisive impact on the 2024 Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House races.
But young people's potential to play a major role in election outcomes extend beyond a handful of races in traditional battleground states. In elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, which take place every two years in every single community—and which are often decided by just a few percentage points—there is extraordinary potential for young voters to influence results.
Expanding our view to the top 50 districts in our Youth Electoral Significance Index brings that potential into focus across the country.
The top 50 House races in our ranking underscore that there is potential for youth electoral impact, from coast to coast, in many different communities. It includes districts in 23 different states, encompassing communities like the Tucson suburbs (Arizona 6th), the southern Twin Cities (Minnesota 2nd), the second most rural district in the country (Maine 2nd), and the entire state of Alaska.
California (seven) and New York (six) have the most districts in the top 50—unsurprising since they have 52 and 26 total U.S. House seats, respectively. Michigan and Pennsylvania have four districts each in the top 50, and Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington also have multiple races in the top 50.
The Youth Electoral Significance Index does not predict where young people will help decide elections. Rather it highlights their potential for influencing results that can only be fulfilled if campaigns, organizations, and other stakeholders in a community do the work to reach young people and support their participation in 2024.