Young Voters Power Mamdani Victory, Shape Key 2025 Elections
Authors: Alberto Medina, Sara Suzuki, Ruby Belle Booth
In one of their first major opportunities to shape the political landscape since the last presidential election, young voters played a major role in three key 2025 elections in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia.
In New York City, young voters (ages 18-29) provided Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani overwhelming support toward his historic victory. According to exit polls, 78% of youth voted for Mamdani, compared to 18% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 4% for Republican Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani won the three-way race with 50% of the overall vote; young people were his strongest supporters out of all age groups.
According to CIRCLE estimates, also based on exit polls conducted by SSRS and Census population data, 19% of young eligible voters cast ballots in the New York City mayoral election. This is an early day-after estimate based on 93% of votes counted as of early afternoon on November 5; the number may shift slightly once all votes are counted.
Eleven percent of all ballots in the election were cast by young voters, who made up a key part of Mayor-Elect Mamdani’s winning coalition.
Available data suggests that youth turnout was far stronger than in previous New York City mayoral races and high for municipal races in general. An analysis by researchers at Portland State University found that, in 2013, just 8% of youth ages 18-34 cast ballots for New York mayor, and the average voter turnout for that age group in the 30 largest U.S. cities was 9%. CIRCLE’s own research found that, in the 2015 Boston mayoral race, less than 2% of youth (ages 18-29) cast ballots.
While youth turnout data is not available for the 2021 New York City mayoral race, overall (all age) turnout in that election was 23%, meaning youth turnout was likely much lower. In that context of historically low youth turnout for municipal races, the 19% youth voter turnout in the 2025 New York city mayoral election is a major increase.
The New York City mayoral race also reflected some major recent trends in the youth vote by race and gender. Young women were much more likely to support Mamdani than young men: 84% vs. 67%. Youth of color also gave Mamdani extraordinary support: young Latino voters (86%) and young Black voters (84%) voted for Mamdani at a higher rate than white youth (66%).
Youth Turnout Surged In New Jersey and Virginia
Youth voter participation was also significant in two key gubernatorial races. CIRCLE estimates that 34% of youth (ages 18-29) voted in Virginia and 29% in New Jersey. In both states, youth turnout increased by 7 percentage points in Virginia and 9 points in New Jersey compared to the 2021 gubernatorial elections.
We have been tracking youth voter turnout in the New Jersey and Virginia off-year elections for the past four cycles. These races are often seen as an early bellwether for electoral participation and vote choice. While youth turnout in New Jersey has been relatively steady, Virginia experienced a meaningful surge in youth turnout in 2017—ahead of the 2018 and 2020 elections which featured historic highs in youth electoral engagement.
Some observers also look to these races for insights on voters’ partisan behavior. In 2017, youth ages 18-29 favored Democratic candidate Ralph Northam by a 39-point margin (69% vs. 30% for Republican Ed Gillespie), perhaps presaging the strong support from youth for President Biden both in Virginia (+29 from young voters) and nationally (+24) in 2020.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia, support for the Democratic candidate narrowed to 8 points. Three years later, in 2024, youth support for Vice President Kamala Harris also narrowed significantly.
In 2025, youth support for Democratic gubernatorial candidates returned to its previous high levels. According to exit polls, 69% of youth supported both Spanberger in Virginia and Sherrill in New Jersey, giving both candidates 38-point margins over their Republican opponents.
Youth Strongly Backed California Redistricting Measure
In another high-profile vote, young people in California were the strongest supporters of Proposition 50, which will redraw the state’s Congressional map to give Democrats more seats in the House of Representatives. The proposition passed easily with 64% of the total vote (as of Wednesday, November 5). Eighty percent of young California voters supported the measure—the highest of any age group.
The overwhelming support for this redistricting proposition may signal that many youth are dissatisfied with structural issues in democracy and willing to back major reforms to pursue change. This tracks with what we’ve seen in our youth polling after the 2024 election: youth believe in the values and principles of democracy but largely think it’s not working for their generation or solving the country’s problems—and some are willing to consider transformative measures.
