Youth Voter Turnout in 2022: Florida

Every election cycle, CIRCLE analyzes voter file data (aggregated by Catalist) to determine changes in the number of youth–ages 18 to 29–who registered to vote in certain states. These changes are expressed as a percentage change from the previous matching (midterm or presidential) election cycle. In this case, November 2022 data were compared to November 2018 data. You can read our full 2022 analysis here.

The 2018 election featured the highest youth voter turnout in any midterm cycle since the voting age was lowered to 18. This means that 2022 registration numbers are being compared to a historically high level of youth participation. The fact that many states exceeded or came close to matching their 2018 registration numbers demonstrates the power of youth participation in elections. At the same time, the fact that most states had lower youth turnout in 2022 than in 2018 even if they had more young people registered to vote speaks to challenges and barriers beyond voter registration. 

In Florida, the percent change in youth registration was +2% for 18- to 29-year-olds.

We provide a breakdown of the overall percent change by county as well.

CIRCLE also calculates youth voter turnout for counties and states by taking the total number of votes cast by youth (ages 18 to 29) and dividing that number by the number of citizens who are 18 to 29 years old. The data on the number of votes cast by youth come from voter file data aggregated by Catalist, and the number of young citizens come from the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The 2022 midterm election had the second-highest youth voter turnout in almost three decades. Although youth turnout in most states was lower than 2018 levels, which was a historic high-water mark, 2022’s turnout is part of a trend of more robust youth voting than in previous decades.

That said, only 1 in 4 young people cast a ballot last November, a reminder that youth still have a lot of untapped power to shift our civic institutions. Unleashing that power and increasing youth voting rates will require understanding what resources and support youth will need to prepare for democratic participation in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Florida had an estimated youth voter turnout of 22% in the 2022 midterm elections.

The heat map below shows youth voter turnout (ages 18-29) in the state by county. Patterns of youth voting across counties may reflect both demographic differences as well as the relative strength of the area’s civic infrastructure. Examining county-level voter turnout is therefore important for understanding what barriers to civic engagement may be impacting youth in different communities. These barriers may be related to long-term disinvestment in counties’ civic infrastructure. For example, education is strongly related to voter turnout, and therefore disinvestment from public education in certain counties may be linked to a lack of civic knowledge and readiness for civic participation among youth.

Civic infrastructure is critical, not only to building capacity for civic engagement and political power, but to improving communities’ civic health and quality of life. We hope that zooming in to the county level provides key insights that both reflect the work that has been done to support youth in your region, and informs your future efforts to strengthen communities.

Although in 2022 young people (ages 18-29) voted at one of the highest levels for a midterm election in recent decades, as in other recent election cycles, there were differences in youth voter turnout by race/ethnicity that point to major inequities and challenges in preparing all youth to participate in democracy.

Below we present the 2022 youth voter turnout of four racial/ethnic groups. Unfortunately, data could not be analyzed for other racial/ethnic groups due to small sample sizes. The number of votes cast by youth in each group was drawn from CIRCLE’s analysis of Catalist voter file data. The population of young citizens in each racial/ethnic group is drawn from the U.S. Census American Community Survey.

These data should be interpreted with caution for two main reasons. In the Catalist voter file data, race/ethnicity is algorithmically imputed based on other data such as address and name. In other words, in most states, the voter file does not include people’s self-reported race/ethnicity; that data is estimated based on other factors. In addition, we provide the margin of error for our estimates of youth voter turnout, represented by the red shading on the chart below. The margin of error reflects how precisely the U.S. Census is able to calculate the number of youth in each race/ethnicity group; smaller racial/ethnic groups groups have a larger margin of error.

Our research over the past two decades has shown that youth voter participation is a matter of whether youth have access and opportunity to learn about and engage in the democratic process. The electoral policy landscape is a critical part of that ecosystem: restrictive laws and policies can hinder broader and more equitable participation, while more facilitative laws and policies can broaden the electorate, close inequities between various groups, and expand access to the ballot. 

Our research has shown that policies like online voter registration, automatic voter registration, and pre-registration are correlated with higher youth voter participation. Below we present a simplified snapshot of the state’s policy landscape as of November 2022 in order to highlight the potential impact of laws and policies on young people’s ability to register and vote. A full analysis of policies in effect for the 2022 midterm election can be found here.

CIRCLE’s Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI) provides a data-driven ranking of the top 10 races in the nation where young voters have the highest potential to influence election results. The index includes data on the youth population, state election laws, projected competitiveness, and other factors that can shape young voters’ participation. 

The YESI underscores that young voters can have a decisive impact in dozens of races across the country. It can be used to identify key places where additional efforts and resources to turn out the youth vote could be decisive. It can also be a tool for equity and broadening engagement if efforts focus on reaching those not yet engaged in the top-ranked locations.

There are several key states that are expected to have multiple highly competitive races in the next election cycle. CIRCLE plans to release the 2024 YESI rankings in Fall 2023.

Every election cycle, CIRCLE conducts a large-scale voter registration analysis and reports the findings in the Independent Voter Registration (IVR) report. The report includes an examination of field-wide trends and best practices. Organizations that participate in the study rt receive information about the overall landscape of independent voter registration as well as information about their own work: who they registered, how they were registered (in-person, online, etc.), and whether the people that the organization registered cast a ballot. Participation in the study and receipt of the report are free.

We invite YEF member organizations to consider joining IVR in 2024, or to continue participating if you already do so. Please reach out to us if you would like to discuss whether your organization would be a good fit for the IVR report and how you can plan for participation in 2024. In particular, we would be happy to share with you what data needs to be collected to be included in the report.