Youth Expertise - Young and Leaving: How Nebraska’s Youth Exodus Could Impact Elections

Note: This essay is part of CIRCLE's 2024 Youth Expertise Series, which gives young leaders the opportunity to share their perspectives and experiences on issues and dynamics shaping young people's engagement in civic life.

About the author: Hannah Michelle Bussa -  Hannah Michelle Bussa is a writer currently based in Nebraska. You can find more of her work on Substack. Hannah is part of CIRCLE's Young Leaders Learning Community.

My state is considered a flyover state, but it could play a major role in the upcoming election. 

Nebraska is one of the states in the middle of the country that is typically overlooked, flown over to get from one coast to the other. 

Growing up in Nebraska, I realized that where I lived didn’t seem to be an important place. The underlying message was that if you wanted to live somewhere important - or perhaps be someone important - you would need to move away. So, many young people do. 

Young People are Leaving Nebraska 

Young people continue to move out of Nebraska. Most studies specifically focus on brain drain (people with a bachelor’s degree or higher leaving the state), but recent studies have shown that young Nebraskans without degrees are also leaving the state. 

The Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha considers the exodus of young people a critical issue in Nebraska. While many young people still live in Nebraska, the sustained trend continues to be negative, with more young people moving away than moving in.

As they continue to move away, Nebraska communities lose young people’s unique perspectives and investments in the future. Young people make their communities stronger by shaping the culture and finding solutions to local problems. Out-migration can also lead to economic stagnation.  

Of course, multiple factors contribute to young people leaving the state, which continue to be studied. In Nebraska’s Exit Survey, those who moved away highlighted professional growth, better job opportunities, and pay as their leading factors for moving. The cost of housing, amenities, quality of life, and values of diversity and inclusion were key factors as well. 

Out-migration is nearly impossible to track completely, from all of its causes to all of its impacts. One impact to consider is the potential impact of the exodus of young people on Nebraska’s elections. 

Nebraska’s Unique Role in the Presidential Election

In presidential elections, Nebraska has a unique role, despite typically being overlooked. We are one of only two states that split electoral college votes. Instead of electoral votes being winner-take-all, in Nebraska, one electoral vote goes to the popular vote winner in each congressional district. 

The presidential election could, mathematically, come down to the one electoral college vote for Nebraska’s second congressional district, mostly representing the city of Omaha. This may not be incredibly likely, but it is enough of a possibility in the 2024 election that it’s brought our second district into national election coverage, including on NPR and in the Guardian. 

Nationally, Nebraska’s legislators have also been pushed to pass a law to switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral system prior to the 2024 election. 

The Power of Young Voters

As a collective, young voters are powerful. Presidential elections can be majorly impacted by young people (ages 18-34). While young voters are not a monolithic group, specifically members of Gen Z vote at higher rates than previous generations, and millions more will be newly eligible to vote in the 2024 election. 

Young voters in Nebraska’s second district are also important to consider in the House of Representatives race. 

CIRCLE has predicted where young people are most likely to shape the 2024 elections. While the presidential race is ranked only by state (therefore not isolating Nebraska’s second district in that race), CIRCLE ranked Nebraska’s second district 17th for the House of Representatives race. 

Many sources, including the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, have listed the second district as a toss-up for the control of the House of Representatives. Young Nebraskans can play a major role in shaping that race. 

The Electoral Impact of Nebraska’s Brain Drain

While it would be difficult to accurately track this intersection, the potential electoral impact of the exodus of young people from Nebraska is something to consider. 

If the results were to come down to the electoral vote of Nebraska’s second district, due to the impact of young people’s votes, Nebraska’s brain drain could impact the outcome of the presidential election. If the trend of young people moving away continues to be net negative, this potential impact could continue to grow for future presidential elections. 

As more young people leave Nebraska, fewer of their votes are counted in the state. 

College experience is also tied to youth voter turnout (half of young people who didn’t vote in 2020 and say they’re unlikely to vote in 2024 have no college experience). As more young people with college experience move away from Nebraska, this may also impact youth voter turnout in the state.

The various factors that contribute to young people leaving the state could also decrease voter turnout and civic engagement in the young people that remain in Nebraska. Those planning to move may decide not to vote, as local races wouldn’t be a direct investment in their future. 

This can continue to feed on itself: as more young people feel their state is overlooked, they can become more disillusioned and less likely to participate in elections.  

However, participating in elections could help young people feel more connected to the future of the state. Although Nebraska's second congressional district is not a rural area, rural areas across the country are facing similar challenges with outmigration, and CIRCLE’s research on growing voters in rural communities may still offer helpful insight. Increasing civic engagement can increase inclusivity, social connectedness, and economic vitality. Increased civic engagement may also decrease outmigration by strengthening young people’s relationships to their communities. 

The growing gap in young people can prevent Nebraskan communities from thriving. However, instead of being stuck in a cycle of feeling overlooked and disillusioned, young Nebraskans can focus on the political power we do have in this election and choose to invest in the future of our state through our votes.

While we might be seen as a flyover state to many, we do live in a place of political importance.