Super Tuesday: Youth Turnout Low in North Carolina, Virginia, and California
Key Takeaways:
- We estimate that youth turnout was 5% in North Carolina, 3% in Virginia, and 3% in California.
- Young people made up between 6% and 8% of voters in North Carolina, Virginia, and California.
- In North Carolina and Virginia, the vote choice was similar among youth and among older voters. There is no youth vote choice data from California due to insufficient samples.
Former President Donald Trump nearly swept the Super Tuesday Republican primaries, losing only in Vermont, and in the two states for which we have youth choice data (NC, VA), he also won the vote among youth.
Voter turnout in the three states for which we can produce exit-poll based estimates was relatively low: 5% in North Carolina, 3% in Virginia, and 3% in California. According to those National Election Pool exit polls, youth made up between 6% and 8% of voters in all three states.
We are only producing and reporting data for the competitive Republican primaries, not for the Democratic contests. Read more data on the youth vote in each state below:
North Carolina
We estimate that 5% of young people (ages 17-29) voted in North Carolina, where exit polls indicate they made up 8% of all voters who cast ballots in Tuesday’s primary.
Overall turnout appears to have been high in North Carolina. In 2012, the last comparable election cycle in which only the GOP had a competitive primary, approximately 967,000 voters cast ballots in the state’s Republican primary. This year, more than a million North Carolinians voted on Super Tuesday.
Former President Trump won North Carolina by a wide margin over former Governor Nikki Haley: 74% vs. 23%. According to exit polls, his level of support among youth was similar to his support overall: 72% of voters under age 30 backed Trump.
North Carolina is one of the top 10 states in CIRCLE’s Youth Electoral Significance Index, which ranks where youth may have the biggest impact in this November’s presidential election. The state’s 1st Congressional district also ranks among the top 50 House Races for potential youth impact.
Virginia
Youth turnout was fairly low in Virginia, where we estimate that 3% of young people (ages 17-29) cast a ballot. According to the National Election Pool exit poll, youth made up just 6% of all voters in the election.
That 3% youth turnout was actually higher than in 2012, the last comparable election cycle in which only the Republican Party had competitive primaries. That year, we estimated that youth voter turnout was 2%.
Overall turnout was much higher in the state this year than in 2012. That year, only about 265,000 Virginians voted in the Republican primary. In 2024, more than 675,000 votes were cast in Virginia.
That level of participation is close, though slightly lower, than in 2012—the most recent year in which only the Republican Party had a competitive primary in the state. In that cycle, youth turnout was 8% and the youth share of the vote was 9%.
While not considered competitive for the presidential race, there are two Virginia congressional districts among our top 50 U.S. House races where young voters could have a decisive impact on the election: the Virginia 2nd and the Virginia 7th.
California
With 95% of the vote counted in California, we estimate that 3% of youth (ages 18-29) cast a ballot in the California Republican Primary. According to the National Election Pool exit poll, the youth share of the vote in California was 7%. Data is not available on youth vote choice in the primary.
While California is not electorally competitive for the presidential or statewide races, it has many competitive congressional races where youth could have a major impact on the outcomes. Seven U.S. House races in California are among the top 50 in our Youth Electoral Significance Index, which ranks elections based on young people’s potential to shape results. That includes three districts in the top 15: the California 27th (#7), the California 47th (#13) and the California 13th (#15).
