The Youth Shifts that Defined the 2026 Midterm Elections

Democratic candidates enjoyed major victories across the country in the 2026 midterm elections, which handed the party control of the House and Senate. Key to those victories was renewed support among young voters, who gave Democrats a 35-point advantage: 66% voted for Democratic House candidates and 31% for Republicans. (While we use the national vote choice for the U.S. House of Representatives in this analysis, data suggest youth vote choice for U.S. Senate and for governor races was similar.)

This is based on a CIRCLE analysis of NORC Civic Health & Elections Project data as of November 6 at 9 a.m. ET. That data could shift very slightly in the coming days.

The strong preference for Democratic candidates is a return to form for young voters, who had given Democrats overwhelming support in recent election cycles until 2024. In that election cycle, some exit polls had youth supporting Democratic House candidates nationally by just 14 points and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by 11 points. Other data had youth supporting Harris by an even smaller 4-point margin.

Behind the nearly 30-point preference for Democrats by youth in 2026 are major shifts among particular demographic groups compared to how those same groups voted for president in 2024. That does not necessarily mean those same young people changed their ideological views or party allegiance—it may also reflect which segments of youth turned out or stayed home in each election. Moreover, because the 2026 data is for youth vote choice in U.S. House elections and the 2024 data for choice of U.S. president, they are not perfectly comparable. However, the data still provides noteworthy insights on what happened with the youth vote in 2026.

Young Men Swing Back Toward Democrats

In 2024, according to AP VoteCast data, 56% of young men voted for President Trump and 42% for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris: a 14-point preference for the Republican candidate. In 2026, young men swung back in the other direction: 59% supported a Democratic House candidate and 37% a Republican.

Young men’s shift back toward Democratic candidates is largely due to the very different choices of young white and Latino men. In 2024, almost two-thirds of young white men voted for President Trump: 63% vs. 35% for Kamala Harris. In the 2026 midterms, young white men gave Democratic House candidates a double-digit advantage: 54% vs. 43%. The shift among young Latino men was even more dramatic. In 2024, they backed President Trump by a slim two-point margin: 49% vs. 47%. In 2026 they voted for Democratic House candidates by nearly 40 points: 65% vs. 28% for Republicans.

While not as drastic as the changes among young white and young Latino men, there were other noteworthy shifts by race and gender. Young white women split their vote evenly in the 2024 presidential race by backed Democratic candidates by 32 points in 2026. Young AAPI men were 15 points more likely to vote Democratic in 2026 than for Kamala Harris in 2024, and young Latina women were 13 points more likely.

Non-College Youth Also Flip to Democrats

In recent elections, there have been major differences among young voters by educational attainment. One key gap is in electoral participation: in 2022, according to Census data, there was a 30-point gap in voter turnout between young people with a Bachelor’s degree (50%) and youth whose highest level of education was a high school diploma. But there has also been a partisan split, with non-college youth more likely to support Republican candidates. In the 2024 election, for example, 55% of youth who have a high school diploma or didn’t finish high school voted for President Trump and 43% for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris: a 12-point Republican advantage.

In the 2026 midterms, however, 60% of youth with “high school or less” educational attainment voted for a Democratic House candidate and 35% voted for a Republican: a 25-point Democratic advantage.

Partisan Gap by Rurality Narrows

There was also a smaller but noteworthy shift by geographic area, especially among youth from small town / rural counties. In 2024, those small town / rural youth gave President Trump a 22-point advantage: 60% voted for Trump and 38% for Harris. In the 2026 midterms, they still preferred a Republican House candidate, but by a much smaller six-point margin: 50% vs. 44%.

CIRCLE will continue to publish findings on the 2026 youth vote. You can find all our data and analysis here.